Duccepe's Alternate Reality

Mr Duccepe, the man who faced the worst assault and disaster of all political leaders on May 2 of this year, going from dozens of MPs to only 2 with his own seat lost, is insistent that Secession from Canada is a must for Quebequers to avoid "assimilation" :

“If Quebeckers don’t move, it’s unavoidable that they will be on the same slippery slope as francophones outside Quebec and Acadians,” he said. “It’s a falsehood to state that francophone communities are thriving.”(link)

Further Duccepe suggests a timeline of 15 years for this to occur.

I have to take issue with this assertion. Mainly because Mr Duceppe is cleverly avoiding discussing the fact that Quebec is ALREADY on the path of self implosion.

Having some of the lowest birth rates in the Country (in our recent history), combined with an aging population has some suggesting that Quebec's population will peak soon and could potentially drop over the next 50 years.

Regardless if Quebec's population actually drops, one thing is for certain: Statistics Canada predictions that the trend that has shown Quebec making up a lower and lower share of the Canadian population will continue.

If this continues, it's well more than plausible that British Columbia could overtake Quebec in terms of population by the end of the century.

Plotting the results of the Statitics Canada projections, along with actual census results you can see what really is happening:

Quebec, in Duccepe's words, has been on the path towards "assimilation", but hardly has this been "fulgurante." It's been a slow process, going on for years.

We can guess at a number of reasons for this trend. Perhaps it's been due to Quebec culturally abandoning it's Catholic, large family roots. Perhaps it's been due to Quebec's embrace of socialist low-groth policies. Perhaps, it even might be that Quebec has been too closed to anglophone immigration.

Regardless of the cause, it's highly laughable to claim that Canada is responsible for this trend. There's been no ethnic cleansing of Quebequers by the Canadian government. They have not been disadvantaged in Confederation - if anything you might argue they have been the bearers of great charity.

This population implosion is happening for reasons otherwise. There's no reason to believe it would change if Quebec left Canada.

If Ducceppe, and those like him, were really interested in stopping this trend, they should be looking to reform Quebec society, culture, and it's politics to make it a pro-family, pro-growth, pro-business jurisdiction.

Unless that happens Duceppe is right - Quebec is going the way of the Do-Do. But it won't be because of Canadian efforts, it'll be in spite of Canadian efforts.

PQ Implosion?

Pauline Marois is having a bad day:

QUEBEC - National Assembly members Lisette Lapointe, Louise Beaudoin and Pierre Curzi have resigned from the Parti Québécois caucus.

The three are leaving over the insistence of PQ leader Pauline Marois that they support a bill that would retroactively legalize an agreement for the management of the Quebec City's proposed hockey arena.(link)

I've heard of MPs leaving a party for many different reasons: contentious moral issues, issues of taxation, broken campaign promises, and changing political winds...

But never, ever, EVER have I heard of a politician quitting his party over a private member's bill which legalizes a contract which ensures a Hockey Arena gets built.

Without a doubt this is merely the last straw that broke the camels back. PQ leader Pauline Marios has had a shaky hold on the party for the past year. Loud rumblings could be heard that she wouldn't pass a leadership review back in April.

Former Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duccepe was an obvious contender for the PQ leadership up until May 2nd. He was a separatist politician that was a winner.

Now, after experiencing the worst defeat in BQ history, Duceppe is politically dead.

Marois faced no leadership contenders, an unpopular Quebec Liberal government, a leadership endorsement from members and an election fast approaching.

The fact that she was willing to take the chance of a caucus revolt by trying to force her members to vote in support of this bill is no shocker. The bill would be seen as being supportive of Quebec City's bid for a new NHL team.

What is shocking, is that in spite of the thrashing that the sovereigntists just received on May 2, and the lack of any credible standbearer for their cause, three PQ members chose the nuclear option anyways.

Time will tell whether this was foolhardy or not on their part. Either way, Pauline Marois has a fire to deal with - especially when she doesn't need one.