Fiberals Until The Very End

New figures show that, despite the Liberal claim the party spent "very close" to what it was legally permitted on this year's campaign, it actually spent far, far less.

(...)

"Do you guys make this s--- up on the fly? Are you kidding me?" Ian McKay said in an e-mail. "You're so wrong it is laughable. Don't give up your day job if you're actually considering journalism as a future career," he continued.

"I cannot stand by and watch as you publish a piece that is complete and utter rubbish."(link)

I expect that Justin Trudeau will immediately come out and offer a heartfelt sincere apology (filled with qualifications galore) on behalf of Liberals that he won't mean whatsoever.

Not to pick on Justin, this is a Fiberal Party wide problem.

It's called institutional arrogance. It's a pesky thing. Usually the first sign that you have it is you start believing you don't.

But, oh I forgot - the Liberal Party ran a brilliant campaign in 2011 and lost because of some sort of magical "disconnect" with voters... Arrogance, mission drift, and a profound hatred of anything rural, Western, or religious had of course not a thing to do with the result.

A Liberal gets it right...

In his blog post, St. Pierre argues that centrism is an electoral strategy, not a political philosophy, and that the Liberals should now start listening more closely to the current wisdom of — yes — Preston Manning, founder of the old Reform Party.

Manning uses an iceberg metaphor to describe politics — parties in themselves represent the 10 per cent above the surface, while ideas, movements and activism form the 90 per cent you don’t see.

“I fear the Liberals have become ice cubes — a party for a party’s sake, and an accumulation of people interested in being in a party and implementing a party’s vision,” St. Pierre wrote...(link)

My thoughts exactly.

The Trouble with the Liberals is they'll never see things that way.

They will forever be a party "of the center." A party that hugs onto a political position that shifts with the blowing wind. A party without a base.

A party that stands for nothing (except maybe to get elected).

A party of nothing.

Count Iggy Needs A Day Off

I'm just speechless at this quotation from the esteemed Count:

“The Liberal party is a democratic institution, it’s a fact. I want to stay. I want to continue. I want to win this election on the second of May but my faith is not just in my hands. Hey folks, it’s in the hands of millions of Canadian voters out there,” he told reporters and supporters outside Liberal candidate Mark Holland’s office in Ajax, Ont.

“After the election, we see where we are,” Ignatieff said.(link)

I'm confused... No I think the Liberal leader is confused... "... my faith is not just in my hands."? Wha...? That sentence makes no sense.

"The Liberal party is a democratic institution, it’s a fact..."

Really? The party of the "friendly dictatorship" that governed in the 1990s?

It gets better:

"We know how to get a deficit under control, we know how to make promises and keep them," Ignatieff said.

(...)

"Mr. Harper hates everything the Liberal party stands for," Ignatieff said. "Mr. Harper has no vision for Canada, but he has a very sharp vision for the Conservative Party of Canada which is to drive a stake through the heart of the Liberal party."(link)

This guy needs some caffeine and pronto.

Does he honestly believe he can use a promise-keeper line ala Mike Harris? He's leader of the party that backtracked on the GST, NAFTA, the "democratic deficit", etc., etc....

And I'm even more confused about Count Iggy's outrage of the "hatred" that Harper shows to the Liberal Party.

I know the Liberal leader was out of the country at the time, but his predecessors made it a priority to destroy the PC's and the Reform Party with an efficiency that would make Karl Rove blush. That's politics. Does the Count really expect us to believe that he wouldn't "drive at stake through the heart" of the Tories if he had the chance?

On top of it all he has failed to realize the blunder he made making that statement. Usually people only talk about "driving a stake through the heart" when they are referring to an unearthly mythological demonic creature. In effect he's saying that the Liberal Party is a member of the undead. Now I realize that the Liberals are down to historic lows in the polls, but I for one do not believe in Vampires or Vampiric Parties and have no intent on supporting them.

Partisanship and joking aside, in all sincerity the Liberal leader needs to take a day off. He's obviously exhausted himself - his entourage should be reading him the riot act at this point because all he's doing by pressing forward is to make more folly for himself and his party.

Why Traditional Media Is Dying

This election is giving plenty of reasons why Canadians are increasingly tuning out the traditional media establishment. (To be frank I wanted to title this post "Gutless Media Jerks" but consider this my good deed of the day).

Most recently we have exhibit one: Heckling reporters.

A reporter asked Harper recently whether he'd hypothetically "accept" a decision of the Governor General to allow an opposition coalition to govern.

To which Harper replied, as any politician with a half brain would, that he wasn't going to answer hypothetical questions.

That should have been good enough. The reporter got his shot at the Tory leader. Time to move on to other attempts to make Harper foul up - after all that reporter needs a juicy story doesn't he?

Instead he pressed Harper further. To which the Conservative crowd booed.

Now, you would think that might be a sign to said reporter that he might have crossed a line there. Instead it has become about how Tory supporters want to silence the press, believe their leader infallible, and are plain simply barbarian hoardes or alien kitten-eating devils.

Exihibit two: Jack's Massage.

Layton had a massage 15 years ago. Only problem is that the massage parlor he went to was suspected of being a bawdy house. The police questioned him. No charges were laid. Nothing's happened since.

To put it simply: who cares?

Certainly not Canadians. Canadians care about putting food on the table and making coffee in the morning. Whatever alleged infidelity Jack Layton may have committed 15 years ago doesn't rank higher up on that list than paying the bills, or getting the newborn feed. Gilles Duccepe and Stephen Harper recognize this and have refused to comment on the story.

Sun TV News was supposed to report the REAL news. Be the voice that the rest of media wasn't. This trash reporting does none of that.

I think the real moral of the story here is don't take massages ... I kid.

Exhibit three: The Liberal Disconnect.

I swear if I read one more article about how the Liberals ran such an amazing campaign but just can't seem to translate it into votes I'm going to puke.

I don't want to kick a guy when he's down, but in all fairness Iggy's campaign was far from flawless.

He had a candidate in Quebec that turned out to be a white supremacist, a gaffe on the coalition question on day one, a lackluster debate performance, and an inability to stay on message just to name a few problems.

I think it was that last point that was the worst. What was the Liberal ballot question again? Oh ya - Are you better off now after 5 years of Stephen Harper?

Whatever happened to that message was lost in Iggy's bizzare "Rise Up" chants that I can only assume that he made up while high on medical marijuana on the Liberal campaign bus.

Maybe Iggy should've had a more scripted message. Maybe he should have focused on trying to control the story just a bit more. Maybe he should have limited what he said and limit the "off-the-cuff" remarks he's so fond of.

Those things are quite frankly more plausible reasons for Iggy's failure then an apparent magical "disconnect" that can't be explained.

The Folly of Seat Projections

The recent surge of the NDP into Liberal and Bloc territory seems to continue without end. Despite the doomsdayers the lines will stabilize (if they haven't already.)

In the mean time we're being treated to a spate of seat projections showing such varying dizzying results. Some Tories, uncomprehendingly, have come out claiming that a Tory Majority is now out of reach. Some believe the Bloc is dead. Others that the Liberals are on life support.

All of this could turn out to be true. But much of it probably won't.

What puzzles me the most about this situation is the almost complete certainty of some with regards to just what these polling numbers actually mean.

How could anyone know what they mean? What are they gods of election prediction? Do they have some sort of crystal ball that allows them to see magically where these new NDP votes are going? Seat projections are based on certain theories on how votes distribute themselves. They have a history of working well when parties poll within a few percentage points of where they did the last time around.

With NDP support not doubling, not tripling, not quadrupling, but increasing by factors of ten or more in Quebec and lesser so elsewhere who is crazy enough to create seat projections at all?

The truth is that no one really knows (or should claim to know) what the NDP surge in support will mean. These new votes could be efficiently distributed for the NDP - or advantageously distributed for others.

Given this uncertainty, the insanity of all this news coverage is apparent. I expect (or maybe I hope) that many will be surprised come May 2nd.

If not it will stroke the already over-bloated egos of some, and turn others into blind pollster worshipers.

Harper Really Does Just Need To Survive

I was right then. And I'm still right.

Conservative optimists and pessimists alike need to take a deep breath.

The fight isn't over. It's only beginning.

The only difference is Comrade Layton, not Count Iggy is the Captain of the pirate ship Coalition.

All that means is that the Socialist/Separatist insurgency will be much more short lived.

Personal Attacks II

"... a senior Liberal strategist, speaking on background, said the Conservatives have forgotten the first rule of politics: that hope beats fear."(link)

It looks like the Liberals have had a change of opinion:

This ad is brilliant (strategically). I don't know why the Liberals haven't tried this yet. The Paul Martin and Jean Chretien Liberals toasted their Conservative opponents with the "hidden agenda" healthcare smear.

And, it worked.

My guess is that Count Iggy was finally convinced that if he wants to have a chance he needs to play rough.

What a massive hypocrite.

"These personal attacks are unprecedented in the history of Canadian democracy..."

And how personal is it to accuse someone of wanting "absolute power?" I'll let you answer that one for yourself.

I will give credit to the Liberals on one front - they didn't attack Harper for his faith, being not anti-American enough, or his patriotism. I guess they've learned something after feeling the heat themselves for once.

Personal Attacks I

Electoral Irony

MONTREAL - A tree fell on the former home of deceased Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau on Thursday, causing minor damage to the building.

The art deco-styled house, located on Pine Avenue West, is considered a heritage site. The reason for the tree falling is unknown.(link)

A sign of a looming Tory majority?... I kid of course.

G20 Costs VI

I honestly didn't think I would ever write another G20 post. Little did I know, Sheila Fraser had other plans.

However, it should be said that this couldn't have been that surprising to anyone. When a summit costs upwards of 150 times the value of similar summits held recently something was misspent.

The interesting part of this whole affair is that the report was leaked now. I find it hard to understand how this would inflict maximum damage. If I really wanted to hammer the Tories over this I would wait until the day of the debates, thereby ensuring that the Tories are caught off guard.

Yet at the same time, I don't think the opposition will get much play over this issue. The G20 summit happened a long time ago now. The public has well over forgotten.

Moreover, financial scandals have hard time sticking to governments. Just ask Jean Chretien. It has to get really really REALLY bad for people to take notice. One billion dollar boondoggle alone is not enough.

To make matters worse for the opposition, they are unlikely to convince many that they would do a better job. Fiscal responsibility is just not a core winnable issue for the left in general. It would be the equivalent of the Tories criticizing Liberal policy on healthcare. Would Canadians really believe the Tories are the defenders of public healthcare? Regardless if it's true or not - the prevailing bias is what it is.

I believe that the Tories will most likely emerge from this and survive. And (I hope) learning some hard lessons.

G20 Costs V
G20 Costs IV
G20 Costs III
G20 Costs II
G20 Costs I

Laytonisms

Layton Speaks!

"If Mr. Harper is in charge of the future of health care in our country then Canadians should be very, very worried..."

(...)

"They don't believe it's a federal issue. They want to leave it to the provinces knowing that the provinces don't have the resources that are necessary and privatization will become the only option."(link)

That's cause it aint a federal issue. That's what tick's off most provinces - especially Quebec. Oh well - Layton will just zap those pesky national unity issues with laser beams from this manly moustache!

Also, Mr Moustache, you're wrong about the Tories. Not wrong in the sense that a lot of Tories would like privatization. Not in the sense that we do believe it isn't a federal issue either.

You're wrong in believing that the Tories will do anything that you wouldn't do on the healthcare front.

The Tories fear one word more than anything (even the "A" word) : healthcare. It's been the beating stick used by their opposition over and over and over... To the Tories, whatever their personal opinions, no one will ever ever touch healthcare. Even worse - if you propose to do anything to healthcare I would be willing to bet that Harper would come out the very next day and say "us too!"

Be wary as we travel into a political parallel universe, with the same party leaders just ideologies switched!

SURREY, B.C. — NDP Leader Jack Layton is promising to get tough on crime, particularly gang violence.

The party's strategy would put an additional 2,500 police officers on streets across the country and double funding for programs that try to keep children from joining gangs.(link)

I bet there's some sort of pro-hippie fine print in that policy - but in the meantime the NDP get kuddos from me on joining the fight.

Harper's Slam Dunk

SAANICH, B.C. — The Conservatives will allow Canadian families with children under 18 to split up to $50,000 of their income annually to lower their taxes, Prime Minister Stephen Harper announced Monday.(link)

This is a slam dunk policy wise for Harper. The delayed implementation is unfortunate but I believe understandable by most of the electorate.

Firstly, this is righting a long standing wrong in the Canadian tax system. Just because mommy or daddy decides to stay home and take an income hit, doesn't mean they need to be taxed higher (comparatively) too.

Secondly, announcing this early provides Canadians an opportunity to plan. It will set off a change in behavior that will ultimately mean more economic growth, more savings for Canadians, and more jobs for Canadians over the long term.

From a purely strategic perspective the Tories have scored as well. Taxes and the economy is right now THE Tory issue. The Liberals and NPD don't have much they could counter this with. It's a big policy move and it's a bread and butter issue.

Wouldn't you like an extra $1300 bucks? All you have to be is Canadian, have kids, and an average salary. That's a very easy sell. And it's definitely something to put wind in Tory sails.

Liberal Fantasy Land

Is populated by relentless optimists it seems:

The Conservatives hope the coalition question will develop into a much-coveted “wedge” issue – a debate that polarizes support into two camps, with one party on one side and all the other parties together on the other.

(...)

But a senior Liberal strategist, speaking on background, said the Conservatives have forgotten the first rule of politics: that hope beats fear.(link)

To they honestly expect Canucks to buy that argument from the Party who invented fear-mongering?

Sure... Hope beats fear of an Abortion Law? Hope beats fear of Canadian Soldiers in Iraq? Hope beats fear of proliferating guns? Hope beats fear of losing welfare benefits?

Fear motivates. Fear wins. Hope is an ideal that we are so far from it's laughable to suggest anything else. Especially from the Party that invented that concept in Canadian politics.

Harper Just Needs to Survive

"You must never confuse faith that you will prevail in the end - which you can never afford to loose - with the discipline to confront the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever they might be."- Vice Admiral James Bond Stockdale

It's important, particularly now, for Federal Tories to remember the above quoted "Stockdale Paradox." Now isn't the time to be relentless optimists.

This rings especially true in our present state of affairs. Don't believe Count Iggy's newfound distaste for coalitions - one is in the works, behind the scenes, ready for deployment.

It's impossible to conceive of a logical reason otherwise for the recent Liberal penchant for an election right now. Count Iggy had a year to turn Liberal fortunes around in the polls - and that hasn't happened. A year is enough for most Liberals. His time in power, he must reckon, isn't going to last much longer. His only shot at being Prime Minister is now. And if he can't get it by winning votes, there's always "... a coalition if necessary."

That means that Conservatives need to confront the brutal fact that a coalition of the left in this country is almost assured.

The way I see it, there are three possible tactical counter moves to this problem:

1) Win an outright Majority. To me this qualifies as the relentless optimist's choice. Most polls have consistently shown that the Tories have a ceiling of support of a bare majority - at best. Even former Harper Advisor Tom Flanagan has pointed out that we are living an era where a Tory majority is a reclusive dream. That doesn't mean that a Tory majority isn't possible - only improbable. If it happens great, but despite Tory hopes, and Tory best efforts (which should not abate), a majority will most likely not materialize. But there are other options.

2) Convince Some Opposition MPs to Switch Sides. Current polling projections shows the Tories winning somewhere between 150 and 153 seats in an election. That's just a 1/2 dozen seats to a majority. It's possible that some opposition MPs, unhappy with Count Iggy Puff's coalition of losers, would be willing to jump ship. To me this is a very realistic scenario, and one that would save Canada from a socialist fate that would make even Pierre Elliot Trudeau Blush.

3) Resign En Masse. To me this is the nuclear option. At the end of the day, it's the very one thing that could blow any coalition attempt away - yet it brings with it high political dangers. If every Tory MP resigned en masse as part of an organized take down by the Harper Tories, it would prevent a new coalition government from functioning. Everything would grind to a halt. Effectively it would force the short lived Prime Minister Count Iggy's Government into another election. Very quickly the man who said he wouldn't, and the other men who said nothing would be facing an angry electorate asking the question why? Good luck to the opposition on navigating that situation.

Given the above, the Tories need to prepare themselves for the brutal reality of a coalition government. It's possible that Harper may not be Prime Minister for a brief time (despite winning the most seats), before returning to power in a snap election. The best thing they can do is make the moves now to strategically position themselves for what they will need to do later.

In short, Harper doesn't really need to win a majority at all. What he needs to do is survive. If he can, very shortly he could find himself facing a divided, unpopular, cash strapped opposition as Prime Minister of a stable Majority - Even if he has to take a short lived "walk in the snow" to get there.